Universal Basic Income is Welfare

The idea of a universal basic income has found growing support in Silicon Valley as robots threaten to radically change the nature of work.

Ebay founder Pierre Omidyar is the latest tech bigwig to get behind the concept. His philanthropic investment firm, the Omidyar Network, announced Wednesday that it will give nearly half a million dollars to a group testing the policy in Kenya.

SEE ALSO: Could 2017 be the year people take universal basic income seriously?

Universal basic income is the notion that a government should guarantee every citizen a yearly sum of money, no strings attached. The thinking is that such a program would relieve economic stress as automation technology severely reduces the demand for labor.

Theories along these lines have existed for centuries, but their proponents have never had much luck convincing governments to give them a shot. Thus, the only data on real-world effects come from a few scattered experiments throughout the years.

GiveDirectly is looking to add to that knowledge with one of the biggest trials of a basic income system in history. 

The group recently launched a 12-year pilot program in which it plans to give 6,000 Kenyans regular stipends for the entire duration. Around 20,000 more will receive at least some form of cash transfer.

The Omidyar Network is hoping the study will help advance the debate around basic income from broad theoretical terms to more practical considerations.

"While the discussion has generated a lot of heat, it hasn’t produced very much light," wrote the Omidyar Network's Mike Kubzansky and Tracy Williams in a blog post announcing the pledge. "There is very little research and empirical evidence on how and when UBI could best be used."

Omidyar isn't the only tech mogul backing efforts to take the theory from paper to practice. 

Startup incubator Y-Combinator is in the midst of one such study in the Bay Area, and its president, Sam Altman, and Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes have kicked $10 million towards another research project.

A number of other tests have also cropped up in recent months as universal basic income finds more mainstream acceptance. 

-Patrick Kulp, Mashable  

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Propaganda is Obvious

Because it is excellent, I've cut and pasted from a fascinating- and chilling -article by Berit Anderson and Brett Horvath from scout.ai  If you wanted reasons to spend less time on line, well here you go.  The full article is at https://scout.ai/story/the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine  This is a must read.  Thanks Tom Civiletti for your post.
The upshot:  political, social and economic propagandizers now have the capacity to customize their message to every single individual with an online presence.  They can build a total experience for you, complete with a large group of fake friends, that is emotionally addicting and intellectually manipulative.  They can construct a complete world just for you, solely for the purpose of contolling your decisions.  Which doesn't feel like control at all.
This is why I believe people who run face-to-face businesses like I do will never become extinct.  In fact, now is our time.  We must counteract this powerful, pervasive and unConstitutional manipulation of one another.

At Scout, we’ve been speaking with political strategists, technologists, and machine learning experts about how AI propaganda will spread through society in the near future. We want to work with you, the Scout community, to scenario plan what happens next. Here are some implications to get the conversation started.

IMPLICATION #1:

Public Sentiment Turns Into High-Frequency Trading

Thanks to stock-trading algorithms, large portions of public stock and commodity markets no longer resemble a human system and, some would argue, no longer serve their purpose as a signal of value. Instead they’re a battleground for high-frequency trading algorithms attempting to influence price or find nano-leverage in price position.

In the near future, we may see a similar process unfold in our public debates. Instead of battling press conferences and opinion articles, public opinion about companies and politicians may turn into multi-billion dollar battles between competing algorithms, each deployed to sway public sentiment. Stock trading algorithms already exist that analyze millions of Tweets and online posts in real-time and make trades in a matter of milliseconds based on changes in public sentiment. Algorithmic trading and ‘algorithmic public opinion’ are already connected. It’s likely they will continue to converge.

IMPLICATION #2: 

Personalized, Automated Propaganda That Adapts to Your Weaknesses

What if President Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign didn’t just have the best political messaging, but 250 million algorithmic versions of their political message all updating in real-time, personalized to precisely fit the worldview and attack the insecurities of their targets? Instead of having to deal with misleading politicians, we may soon witness a cambrian explosion of pathologically-lying political and corporate bots that constantly improve at manipulating us.

IMPLICATION #3: 

Not Just a Bubble, But Trapped in Your Own Ideological Matrix

Imagine that in 2020 you found out that your favorite politics page or group on Facebook didn’t actually have any other human members, but was filled with dozens or hundreds of bots that made you feel at home and your opinions validated? Is it possible that you might never find out?

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Follow Your Gut

I want to profusely thank Brian Love for his excellent Behavioral Finance article in the latest issue of Financial Advisor IQ (The Incredible "Shrinking" Advisor).  Love's article reiterates why the most important aspect of our profession is not securities analysis or projecting rates of return.  So I title this post with the myth that you should follow your gut when choosing investment options.  To the contrary.
Shown in the graphic below are the six primary mental and emotional biases investors suffer.  Which cause them to experience worse returns than unmanaged indices.  Wall Street & the financial media primarily exploit these biases rather than curing them.
Personally, I think the most destructive is the 5th one, a preference for Lotteries.  Just look at the billions that flow into national & local government sanctioned lotteries, for example.  Like any other bias-subject commodity on the market, this bias causes lotteries to be way over-valued.


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