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Showing posts with label budgeting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label budgeting. Show all posts

Thursday, January 13, 2022

The CPI-W is an Accurate Measure of Retirees' Household Inflation

FALSE!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics very clearly states in their FAQ re the CPI "it seldom mirrors a particular consumer's experience".  Gosh, I wonder why, since they use the CPI-W to determine Social Security cost of living adjustments.  CPI-W is how urban wage earners and clerical worker spend their money with these two qualifiers:

  • More than half the household income must come from clerical or wage occupations
  • One of the household's earners must have been employed at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months.
This group represents only 29% of the population, and certainly not most seniors.

This is why we require our clients to develop an Expense Plan, or budget:  To determine what their particular household's inflation rate is and will be in the future.  Of course, these are just estimates.  For example, our expense plan template assigns different inflation rates for many of the line items:

  • If you have a fixed mortgage, that payment has an inflation rate of zero
  • If you spend a lot on medical expenses then those line items will inflate much more
  • If you buy a lot of clothing, those prices haven't inflated much at all.
So the point is, every household should have a customized estimate of their inflation rate.  Averages are never very accurate.  For example if you have a boy and a girl, what is their average gender?

Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Monday, April 19, 2021

HEALTHCARE WILL BE YOUR BIGGEST RETIREMENT EXPENSE

 The truth of this blog heading depends, of course, on the health and wealth of the individual.  But it is still rarely true.  In the plans I've developed, Taxes usually exceed projected health care costs 3 to 1.  I think a lot of health care cost calculators are unjustifiably alarmist for the purpose of selling insurance.  For example AARP's calculator said my health care costs would be close to $800,000 during my lifetime.

Huh?  If I met my maximum OOP every year for the rest of my life that would only add up to about $120,000.  Oh, you know, I'll bet they're referring to the total healthcare cost before insurance.  So why didn't they just say that?  How many age 65+ people are completely uninsured?

Vanguard Health Care Cost Estimator, on the other hand, seems to be more accurate.  I urge you to try it.  I plugged in all my details and here's what it churned out:

 


So that's a bit less than $120,000 in today's dollars.  And far less than the terrifying $800,000 generated by AARP's calculator. 
 

Taxes, on the other hand, take up the slack.  Below is a typical cumulative income tax projection that I create for clients.  (Here in Portland, OR we should probably include property taxes too as they average $500/mo. and increase about 3%/yr.  This is especially draining for fixed income folks.  But that's not included in the chart below).  Total tax bill for this client- without any strategizing -by 2040 is $837,000!!
Do you think it's essential, then, to have a retirement cash flow plan that factors in taxes?  A specific, written retirement cash flow plan is the only "insurance" for reducing that gigantic tax bill.


Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Annuities and the F-WORD Belong in the Same Sentence.

I've had the good fortune to meet and work with Frank Maselli.  He is a brilliant, affable and hilarious adviser to advisers.  Below I've simply cut and pasted a great and timely article he just wrote for us advisers.




I never pitch products in my training programs or keynotes because I believe that advanced skills are product neutral. It's up to each advisor to decide what's best for the client.
But I am seeing a confluence of market and demographic forces right now that is causing me to line up enthusiastically behind one particular product strategy. 

I think we have entered the Age of the Annuity!

If you've never done one before, it's time to take a hard look at them. And if you're already using them…you might want to double your efforts for the next couple of decades.
DOL & the “F-Word!”The Department of Labor “fiduciary rule” is currently stuck in the mud of Washington confusion at the moment. No one can say today if this thing is going to survive or what form it might take after all the bureaucratic sputtering is finished. [as of 6/2018 the industry managed to kill the rule]
But even if DOL disappears completely...The F-word will not. “FIDUCIARY” is here to stay!
Acting in our clients' best interests is what we do every day. So this is not a major shift in anyone's business philosophy. But it is a big shift in perception. 
The public is being told by regulators and the media to ask advisors right up front, “Are you a fiduciary?” 
Few clients understand the implications of that word, but they're certain a “No” answer, or any hesitation, is bad news. And it's likely to become a major differentiation. 
The choice to become a fiduciary is a big one and there are several sides to this issue. But being a fiduciary means a lot more than simply avoiding high fee products. In fact, when you identify the greatest threat to financial survival that most Americans are facing, fees and commissions are a minor concern. 
By far the biggest danger ahead is the very real risk of outliving our money and not having a reliable income in retirement. 
The second biggest danger is in trying to navigate retirement without some kind of professional help. Sadly, that's what the DOL rule may mean for millions of Americans.
Combined...these two risks mean that if you DON'T show the client an annuity option, you may be in for a seriously expensive lawsuit down the road. 

"Annuity Now!"

There's a classic episode of Seinfeld where Frank Costanza (George's father) tried to reduce his stress by shouting “Serenity now!” My annuity mantra may be a slight modification, but the idea is the same.
To effectively reduce the stress and fear that millions of retiring Boomers are about to face, an annuity in some form may be the best, if not the only answer. 
And you have a wide range of options to accommodate nearly every need including immediate, fixed, indexed, variable and investment only...so there really are no excuses anymore. There may be a slight learning curve, but the effort will be richly rewarded.  
Bottom line: If annuities are not part of your product mix in a major way…you need to re-think your approach fast. 

From Hater to Fan

As a former wirehouse stock-jockey, I used to pitch against annuities. I was never a fan. But times have changed. 
John Maynard Keynes famously said, “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?” 
I believe today that annuities are the only reliable way to guarantee a steady stream of income in retirement. And before you say “Bonds do that too.” I hasten to point out that the 33-year falling interest rate cycle is over. Very few advisors today know the pain of destroying client wealth in a bond portfolio. 
The reality is that most people are living far longer than their money will last. Given that fact, annuities might be the only salvation for tens of millions of Americans. 
Plenty of advisors are already on board with annuities, but far too many are not yet. Add to that the fact that the whole DOL debacle feels like a direct assault on the annuity industry just at the time Americans need these programs most. The irony there is painfully sad. 

Best Interests! Really?

So go back to the whole “fiduciary” thing for a minute. What is truly in the client's best interests? (Allowing for different needs and objectives of course.) 
Is it better to show a client an annuity with some kind of commission charge…
Or should you try to build a portfolio of super low-fee, passive ETFs or mutual funds and craft a lifetime income stream from that?
If you said “Both” that's fine! But at least put a portion of the portfolio into something that's protected forever. Why would anyone disagree with that? 
And if costs are your concern...what if the annuity itself was also low fee? 
Annuity firms right now are bringing new programs to market that look better than anything we've ever seen with lower fees, great investment choices, fantastic liquidity, and more income flexibility.
They might never get as cheap as an index fund, but let's say for the sake of argument that the incremental fee for an annuity was around 100 basis points per year. How would you ever go to a client who had depleted their assets by age 80 and say, “Gee Bob, I'm really sorry. I had a chance to guarantee a portion of your retirement income...but I was really worried about charging you 1% more in annual fees!” 
That is not a conversation you want to have. Your Monte Carlo simulation and low-fee argument won't stand up in court. And folks, there's no doubt that as many retirees start running out of money, some attorney will dig into their portfolio to find where an advisor failed to recommend some kind of safety and a guaranteed income. We haven't seen the panic yet, but just look at the demographics...it's coming like a freight train!

Why is now the right time?
In my new book, 40 Tips for the Under 40 Advisor, Tip #35 states: 

In really good or bad times...prepare clients for the opposite!
The markets have been strong and I'm not predicting a downturn here. But none of us needs a massive loss to convince us to protect some of our client's retirement savings. It's just common sense.
An annuity puts client assets into the hands of very large, very solvent and historically conservative companies who are much more tightly controlled than any bank. There is no better way to stabilize the retirement ship in a stormy sea and to take some of that longevity risk off the table! 

“The AGE of the Annuity!”
So the new era is upon us. I wrote about "The Year of the Annuity" in early 2016, but I think we are going to be in this protection business for the next 30 years. And whatever happens with the DOL rule, the F-word will likely be with us forever. Truly acting in a client's best interests transcends the trivia of commissions and fees.

  • It demands that we protect them from the greatest threat to their future…outliving their money. 
  • It mandates that we instill and insure some kind of guarantee and peace of mind in what will be for most a long retirement. 
  • It says that if you haven't done so already, it's time to open your mind to new financial instruments that help people safely DOWN the mountain...not up.  
  • It puts annuities front and center, standing tall in the line-up of solutions we offer. 
In the end we will all be judged on how well we got our people through to their goals.
Annuities used to be one simple product choice among many…but not anymore. 
They are now a core fiduciary responsibility!
Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Monday, February 27, 2017

Universal Basic Income is Welfare

The idea of a universal basic income has found growing support in Silicon Valley as robots threaten to radically change the nature of work.
Ebay founder Pierre Omidyar is the latest tech bigwig to get behind the concept. His philanthropic investment firm, the Omidyar Network, announced Wednesday that it will give nearly half a million dollars to a group testing the policy in Kenya.
Universal basic income is the notion that a government should guarantee every citizen a yearly sum of money, no strings attached. The thinking is that such a program would relieve economic stress as automation technology severely reduces the demand for labor.
Theories along these lines have existed for centuries, but their proponents have never had much luck convincing governments to give them a shot. Thus, the only data on real-world effects come from a few scattered experiments throughout the years.
GiveDirectly is looking to add to that knowledge with one of the biggest trials of a basic income system in history. 
The group recently launched a 12-year pilot program in which it plans to give 6,000 Kenyans regular stipends for the entire duration. Around 20,000 more will receive at least some form of cash transfer.
The Omidyar Network is hoping the study will help advance the debate around basic income from broad theoretical terms to more practical considerations.
"While the discussion has generated a lot of heat, it hasn’t produced very much light," wrote the Omidyar Network's Mike Kubzansky and Tracy Williams in a blog post announcing the pledge. "There is very little research and empirical evidence on how and when UBI could best be used."
Omidyar isn't the only tech mogul backing efforts to take the theory from paper to practice. 
Startup incubator Y-Combinator is in the midst of one such study in the Bay Area, and its president, Sam Altman, and Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes have kicked $10 million towards another research project.
A number of other tests have also cropped up in recent months as universal basic income finds more mainstream acceptance. 
-Patrick Kulp, Mashable  
Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR 2017

This post heading is NOT a myth, for once.

Think about common risks in your life and the tactics you use to minimize or avoid them.

  • If you're trying to lose weight then you burn more calories (read: Exercise) and consume fewer or at least better calories (quality proteins, greens, fruits & oils versus sugars, carbs & artificial or saturated fats).
  • If you're taking a trip and worried about your car breaking down, you can take it in for service, check the tire pressure, top up the tank and other fluids.
  • If you're worried about passing a class then you can burn the midnight oil, get help from your teacher and fellow students, search for tips and tricks online.
And so on.  We counterbalance risk with compensatory actions and strategies.

In my practice, most of my clients are concerned about two possibilities:
  1. Outliving their income and assets
  2. Inflation ballooning their living costs to unmanageable levels.
How can we compensate for these two very real risks in retirement?  We have two great tools (and I have Tom Hegna to thank for these concise ideas:
  1. Risk pooling
  2. Longevity credits
Let's review Longevity credits first.  I don't know if this is a true story or not but there were five elderly women who like to travel together in the Summer.  On New Year's day they would each put $100 in a box and save it for fun money on their trip.  One year, before their trip, one of them passed away.  The surviving four then had $125 each to spend on their trip.  They each received a 25% longevity credit.  
Is this a way to counteract inflation?  Of course!  (To be sure, in real life much larger groups are formed, but to similar effect.)

Cojoined with Longevity Credits- and making longevity credits possible, is Risk Pooling.  We've all seen schools of fish, flocks of birds, herds of wild animals.  There is great survival value in pooling the risk of predators.  By gathering together, more of them are likely to survive.  It's the same with house insurance.  If the risk were 1 in 1200 that a house would burn down in your neighborhood each year, you could band together with your neighbors to create a fund sufficient to replace that house every year.  (Ideally, it wouldn't be the same house.)  So instead of having to come up with, say, $500,000 to replace your house if it burned down, you would only have to pay 1/1200 of that each year, or $416, otherwise known as a Homeowner's Insurance Premium.

Aside from being a perfect hedge against outliving one's income (we'll get to that) Risk Pooling is a relection of our better nature, like the Amish coming together to build a barn for a neighbor.  Unfortunately, Risk Pooling is an insurance process and must be conducted by insurance companies under most state and federal laws.  I say "unfortunately" because insurance companies get a (mostly) undeserved bad rap.

Social Security is the best current example of both these concepts.  Millions of people participate and the law of large numbers, the larger the Risk Pool, means the system works more predictably the greater the number of participants.  Social Security is an insurance program, it is not a federal entitlement.  But wait, you say, how is that so many beneficiaries will take more in income out of the system than they put in?  The answer is Longevity Credits from the funds of those who die prematurely.

Much maligned annuities are similar tools for privately pooling risk and receiving longevity credits.  And they are much more flexible than Social Security:  you can design cash flow just about any way you like, level, increasing with inflation, for certain period of years,just for your lifetime or for the lifetimes of you and your spouse.  Annuities are like the vacation box.  And that's how we account for a lot of the "too good to be true" features they provide.  For example, let's take a couple with $250,000, he's 68 and she's 62.  The cash flow they desire is joint, lifetime income beginning in 10 years to give them an inflation bump up.  Their lifetime payout at that time would be over $25,000/yr.  no matter how long the last surviving person lives.  And in the meantime, unlike with Social Security, they have access to their principal if they need it.

So.  The two financial pillars for 2017, the year of unpredictability (to say the least) are:
  • Risk Pooling and
  • Longevity Credits


Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Monday, January 25, 2016

ADVISERS DON'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE

Well, according to a recent survey by John Hancock Retirement Plan Services (as reported by the American Retirement Association) there is "an impressive retirement preparations gap among those who use the services of a financial advisor"(sic) and those who do not.

Here are some stats:

  • Regarding 401(k)s, those with advisers were more than twice as likely to be saving the maximum (28% vs. 13%) as those without advisers.
  • Those with advisers were more than twice as likely to be ahead or on track in retirement savings (70% vs. 33%).
  • And the same for those who knew how much they needed to save to be on track:  33% vs. 14%.
  • And yet again with saving for emergencies:  58% with an adviser had emergency funds.  Only 26% of those without advisers did.
The sample size was a very statistically valid 2000.

I take these results with a grain of salt, mostly because they are what I would like to hear.  Based on my own clients, those who are doing well already are also more likely to seek, and follow, my advice.  So it's possible the same is true of the 2000 folks studied by Hancock:  They already suspected they were doing OK but just wanted to be sure that was true, and, to avoid any mistakes.  That is the most often repeated explanation when I ask new clients why they came to see me.  So I don't think we advisers can take all the credit for the better results our clients achieve.

But see how I can make a difference for you:  http://garyduell.com/services/


Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

ADVISERS DON'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE

Well, according to a recent survey by John Hancock Retirement Plan Services (as reported by the American Retirement Association) there is "an impressive retirement preparations gap among those who use the services of a financial advisor"(sic) and those who do not.

Here are some stats:

  • Regarding 401(k)s, those with advisers were more than twice as likely to be saving the maximum (28% vs. 13%) as those without advisers.
  • Those with advisers were more than twice as likely to be ahead or on track in retirement savings (70% vs. 33%).
  • And the same for those who knew how much they needed to save to be on track:  33% vs. 14%.
  • And yet again with saving for emergencies:  58% with an adviser had emergency funds.  Only 26% of those without advisers did.
The sample size was a very statistically valid 2000.

I take these results with a grain of salt, mostly because they are what I would like to hear.  Based on my own clients, those who are doing well already are also more likely to seek, and follow, my advice.  So it's possible the same is true of the 2000 folks studied by Hancock:  They already suspected they were doing OK but just wanted to be sure that was true, and, to avoid any mistakes.  That is the most often repeated explanation when I ask new clients why they came to see me.  So I don't think we advisers can take all the credit for the better results our clients achieve.

But see how I can make a difference for you:  http://garyduell.com/services/


Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!

Monday, September 14, 2015

There is One Best Trick for Maximizing Social Security Benefits

Do you get a lot of emails with the words "trick", "weird" "secret", "epic" and so on to the ends of hyperbole & hubris?  I do.  So I remind you again that the title of this blog- like all my titles -is a big, fat MYTH.  There are two moving parts to Social Security benefit optimization:

  1. Social Security regulations, and,
  2. Your life
And the most important part of that equation is Your Life, more specifically:
  • Your age
  • Image result for baby grandma  
  • Your marital status
  • Image result for marriage
  • Your current and future budget
  • Image result for cashflow
  • Your past, current and future income sources
  • How long and how much you expect to keep working
  • Image result for working stiff
  • Your current health & genetic health history
  • Image result for healthy vs sick
Social Security is an important but relatively small puzzle piece.  It's worth a $25, ninety minute class and a free hour with me to be sure you have an unbiased and holistic picture of your future.


Your Constructive Comments are Welcome!